The Benefits of Actual Vote

You can generate significant benefits for yourself and for US society by video-recording poll tapes with our Actual Vote app. Here are some of those benefits:

Improved Election Transparency

The cat is looking through the transparent section of the window to see what’s happening outside.

A process is transparent if we can observe its inner workings to see how the final result is achieved.

If I bake a cake in front of you, that baking process is highly transparent, since you’re watching me do each step leading up to the finished cake. On the other hand, the processes that got my flour, sugar, and eggs onto the store shelves are not as transparent, since we didn’t observe them and are not told anything about them.

Election transparency means the extent to which the individual procedures of an election are open to public scrutiny and receive legitimate independent audits.

In a highly transparent election, each process is independently audited, meaning that voters have a strong shared evidentiary basis upon which to formulate a belief about the accuracy of the election.

In a highly non-transparent election, even if votes were indeed counted and reported completely correctly behind the scenes, people won’t have a big enough “window of evidence” to look through to easily see this. In other words, it’ll be theoretically impossible to form a strong and full belief that everything was correct. At best, one could form only a weak and unsatisfying belief. This is unacceptable in a democracy.

Election transparency is very important. We deserve reasonable assurance that vote counting and vote reporting are done correctly, since these processes are vulnerable to error and fraud.

In practice, US elections should be more transparent than they are. Achieving this is hard, though, since our election systems are complicated, have widely varying procedures, and must strike a delicate balance between transparency with voter anonymity. While some such procedures are fairly transparent, many others take place behind closed doors, out of the view of the public. To top it off, doing proper election audits is difficult, time-consuming, and, provocative. This helps explain why US elections don’t receive sufficient audits.

Of course, many election authorities do certain kinds of self-audits, which add a welcome dose of transparency to the picture. But this isn’t a substitute for independent election audits—that is, audits by an entity other than the election authority itself. 

We learned this all too well when it was revealed that deadly Boeing plane crashes in 2018 and 2019 were partially caused by the government allowing Boeing itself to run much of their airplane certification process. The airplane certification process is supposed to be handled entirely by the FAA, of course, since they’re an independent entity with no bad incentives to cut corners to help Boeing’s bottom line. When Boeing lobbyists successfully got the rules bent to compromise the independence of this audit process, tragedy was the eventual result.

The lesson is that no matter the organization or industry, independent audits should be a non-negotiable part of the process of obtaining trustworthy evidence about the integrity of a high-stakes process. This is because independent audits provide transparency into the underlying procedures in a way that self-audits can’t. 

Since elections are high-stakes processes, they too should be independently audited. This is true despite the fact that it is certain that most all election administrators in the US are honest and hard-working professionals. 

America Counts thanks all of the honest and professional election administrators around the nation for their hard work on behalf of democracy. At the same time, since elections are ultra-high-stakes and vulnerable to error and fraud, we are inviting everyone to join us in conducting independent audits of vote reporting in as many states and precincts as possible. These audits will add transparency to the vote reporting process above and beyond what such election administrators could ever provide, since they are independent.

We created our Actual Vote app to make it as easy as possible for people like you to help bring about such transparency. When we go to the effort to video-record poll tapes and compare the data to the official results there are three basic outcomes:

  1. It’s an exact match. The independent evidence we’ve created has increased transparency by helping to protect against potential false allegations of error or fraud in vote reporting. It also represents that in addition to the election officials’ hard work in reporting the votes correctly and accurately (as is our default expectation), but we still appreciate having independent confirmation of this fact, since elections are so high-stakes and are vulnerable to error and fraud
  2. We discover apparent discrepancies that end up having a satisfactory explanation that election administrators provide when we ask about the apparent discrepancies. This can happen if there is undocumented reporting logic around reporting write-in votes, for example, which can make the results seem discrepant when in fact they are equivalent in a not-obvious way. Here, at the end of the day, we gain the transparency boost from point (1) since we end up with an exact match, but we also have made people aware of non-trivial details about how their votes are reported
  3. We discover discrepancies for which we can’t find a satisfying explanation. Here, we’ve surfaced critical evidence that the vote reporting may indeed be inaccurate due to error or fraud. Without the transparency boost from our work, such evidence would have otherwise gone unnoticed. The next section describes how Actual Vote can improve election accuracy in this situation

Increasing election transparency, like we do with Actual Vote analyses, strengthens democracy by increasing the extent (on average) to which reasonable people can agree that the election in question properly realized its goal of expressing the will of the people. We can quantify the amount of transparency generated by an Actual Vote analysis using different metrics:

  • Number of precincts covered
  • Number of videos with transcribable poll tape data
  • Number of vote total comparisons made
  • Number of contest-choice combinations analyzed
  • Total number of votes analyzed

Each of these metrics gives a different and useful way to view election transparency.

A New Method of Civic Engagement

An Actual Vote user about to video-record a poll tape.

Civic engagement means using one’s knowledge, skills, and energy to improve life for one’s community, one’s nation, and the world.

When it comes to US politics, some common methods of civic engagement are:

  • Voting
  • Contacting your elected officials
  • Advocating for causes you support
  • Donating to causes you support
  • Volunteering
  • Attending town meetings
  • Running for office

Part of our mission at America Counts is to add something new and powerful to this list: citizen election auditing.

You might think that election auditing is only for highly-trained professionals who have special qualifications that allow them to inspect sensitive parts of the election system, like ballots and election machinery. And there are indeed many types of election auditing, that are off-limits to most people.

But since poll tapes and officially-reported results are public information, anyone who observes poll tapes can compare the vote totals to the corresponding official vote totals, and thereby complete a legitimate, non-partisan audit of that portion of the official reporting.

With America Counts’s Actual Vote system, this gets even easier—all you have to do is get the app, make a plan to access poll tapes, and video-record the poll tapes. America Counts analyzes as many of your recordings as possible before the election certification date (we’re a small organization). This makes it easy and practical for people like you to participate in non-partisan vote report auditing without special qualifications or access. You can be proud that you’ve helped improve election transparency by doing this.

This kind of citizen election auditing is a practical and impactful method of civic engagement.

Improved Election Accuracy

Rulers measure length. Elections measure which candidate is favored by more voters—provided that they are accurate.

In situation (3) above, in which we our Actual Vote analysis reveals true discrepancies between the vote totals on the poll tapes and the officially reported results, the accuracy of the officially reported results is now in question. The exact way we escalate and follow up on these discrepancies will vary depending on the situation. Here are four of the most important possible outcomes of such situations:

  1. Once we escalate, suddenly people gain new motivation, and a highly non-obvious explanation emerges that actually explains the whole situation, and ends up definitively proving that the in-scope portion of the official results was reported accurately
  2. A legal challenge results in the official results being deemed accurate because the Actual Vote evidence, for whatever reason, does not end up convincing the court to rule otherwise. In this situation, for people who accept the court’s reasoning, the in-scope portion of the official results is confirmed to be reported accurately. If there should be a group of people who believe they have good reasons to find court’s argument unconvincing, they will unfortunately still be left with questions about the accuracy of the in-scope vote reporting. Regardless which of these groups a person is in, they’re obligated to accept the court’s ruling and move on. But we are alerted to be hyper-vigilant about vote reporting in the areas in question for the next election, since those areas now have a precedent that they’ve experience vote reporting that was at least questionable
  3. A legal challenge shows that error and/or fraud did indeed occur in the vote reporting, and the official totals are restated accurately, but the size of the discrepancy was not big enough to change the outcome of the race in question. Here, we gain the considerable benefit that a vulnerability in vote reporting was discovered and corrected, which improves election accuracy. It also puts bad actors and election officials alike on alert that Actual Vote users are independently auditing vote reporting, and that error or fraud will be caught and corrected
  4. This is the big one—an Actual Vote analysis uncovers an unexplained discrepancy in vote reporting big enough to flip the outcome of the race in question. A court challenge uses the evidence we collected to force the official results to be restated and the official winner to be changed to the true winner. In our years of using Actual Vote we haven’t gotten this outcome yet, and we hope that vote reporting never goes this awry. But since history shows that this kind of outcome is a completely real possibility, we must deploy Actual Vote at scale to make sure we catch it if it ever should happen.

It’s obvious that increasing election accuracy strengthens democracy by bringing the realized election outcome closer to the theoretically correct one. And it’s easy to quantify a gain in election accuracy—it’s just the number of votes that a court challenge determined were inaccurately reported.

Improved Social Well-Being

US Airways flight 1549 after Captain Sully landed it on the Hudson River on Jan 15, 2009.

Businesses measure success in dollars: if they’re making money, they’re winning.

But how should we measure the success of an Actual Vote analysis? Certainly not in dollars, since we’re not trying to make a profit. We’re also not doing the analysis for our personal benefit—we’re doing it for the sake of strengthening democracy on behalf of everyone in the US.

To capture this, we created a concept called Social Well-Being, or SWB. SWB is a high-level measure of the extent to which a group of people as a whole is thriving or suffering. Things like peace, freedom, rule of law, and strong social contract (along with their downstream benefits) increase SWB. Things like war, lying, corruption, and lack of accountability (along with their downstream harms) decrease SWB.

Working to increase SWB and to prevent it from getting too low are urgent moral priorities for all persons of conscience.

The US can be thought of as having an overall level of SWB that represents our “national health” or “collective thriving”. This level changes in a complex way as events take place. 

For example, many readers will remember when Captain Sully landed an Airbus A320 on the Hudson River, and everyone on board survived. This event caused two big simultaneous adjustments to SWB in the US:

  1. A slight decrease in SWB as the inherent risks of air travel, upon which our economy depends, were thrown into sharp relief
  2. A huge increase SWB, since it affirmed that our air travel safety systems and first responders are able handle never-before-seen life-or-death time-critical crises such that everyone survives. In other words, the inherent trustworthiness of these systems was put to the test, and the systems prevailed

We’ve observed many heart-breaking examples of how SWB suffers when an election lacks this same level of trustworthiness. In such untrustworthy elections, people can’t agree on the legitimacy of the outcome, and there’s no independent evidence to help reasonable people make up their minds. (Of course, there are some people who can’t or won’t be persuaded by evidence, but it’s not clear how to reach such people). All of the vote reporting disputes we talked about in a previous section, for example, decreased SWB in a way that could have been avoided had we had Actual Vote video-recordings of the relevant poll tapes.

Independent evidence about the accuracy of vote reporting, such as that provided by Actual Vote analyses, increase the trustworthiness of elections, which generates an increase in SWB. In particular:

  • It widens the public pool of evidence we have to take an informed opinion on the legitimacy of the election outcome
  • It helps defend against bad faith allegations about an election
  • It can detect and help rectify errors or fraud in vote reporting, bringing the true outcome closer to the theoretically correct outcome
  • It provides information above and beyond what simply comes from official sources, which, as we discussed above, shouldn’t be the full story when it comes to high-stakes events like elections
  • It provides a new and powerful method of civic engagement to go along with voting, advocating for one’s beliefs, and communicating with one’s elected representatives

Join us! Get Actual Vote now, and be a part of our team of citizen election auditors working to increase SWB!

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