2024 North Carolina Primary Actual Vote Analysis ⓘ One complete unit of Actual Vote analysis work: one election in one state, with all the submissions, transcriptions, comparisons, investigations, and findings that produce one published report.

1. Scope

2. Results in Brief

3. Summary of Findings

America Counts audited vote reporting for the North Carolina March 5, 2024 Primary Election across seven counties: Alexander, Forsyth, Granville, Henderson, Iredell, McDowell, and Wake. Volunteers video-recorded poll tapes primarily as poll observers at their assigned polling places on election day.

From 52 transcribable submissions, we transcribed 4,625 individual vote totals covering 321,502 votes across 73 contests. Every transcribed value matched the officially reported result exactly. Zero discrepancies were found.

Two counties were audited in full: in Alexander (101,709 votes) and McDowell (118,970 votes), every officially reported vote — every precinct, every voting method — was checked against poll tape evidence. As a result, five contests were fully verified: every vote reported in those contests was independently confirmed, which places their outcomes beyond the reach of any vote-reporting error. Across all seven covered counties, the audit covered 8.1% of officially reported votes.

This analysis was completed on March 11, 2024 — four days before the election certification date of March 15, 2024. Had any discrepancies been found, they could have been submitted to election administrators as a cooperative ask for explanation or correction while it was still possible to update the official results. This independently confirmed accurate vote reporting across the areas we checked — a concrete contribution to election transparency and social well-being.

This is the first multi-county, pre-certification Actual Vote analysis in North Carolina. Its results establish a scalable model for expanding coverage in future elections.

4. What Is an Actual Vote Analysis?

An Actual Vote analysis is an independent comparison of vote totals transcribed from poll tapes to the corresponding officially reported results, serving as a double-check of the accuracy of vote reporting.

Vote reporting is the process by which local-level vote totals from tabulating machines are aggregated to produce the official countywide and statewide results. This process is distinct from vote counting (which covers everything from voter registration through ballot tabulation). An Actual Vote analysis audits only the reporting step — not the casting, counting, or tabulation of ballots.

The methodology is an independent batch-comparison audit of the vote-reporting chain — the same tape-totals-versus-published-results check that risk-limiting audits perform on randomly sampled batches, conducted here at full coverage of the audited precincts. Batch comparison is a peer-reviewed technique that has been in use for over a decade: Colorado has run statewide risk-limiting audits built on it since 2017 (C.R.S. § 1-7-515), and the Election Assistance Commission, Verified Voting, and the Brennan Center for Justice all endorse rigorous post-election auditing. Actual Vote is not a risk-limiting audit — it does not compute or claim a statistical risk limit, and its claims extend exactly as far as its coverage.

For more information, see How Actual Vote Works and Why Actual Vote Is Trustworthy on our website. For the full technical methodology, see Section 8 of the Technical Manual.

5. Methodology Notes for This Analysis

How vote reporting works in North Carolina

In North Carolina (state details), officially reported results from an election are given in a format that can be easily transformed into one row per combination of County, Precinct, Voting Method, Contest, and Choice, with a single Officially Reported Vote Total for that combination. The four possible values for Voting Method are Election Day, Early Voting, Absentee, and Provisional.

In some cases in certain North Carolina counties, Early Voting, Absentee, and Provisional votes may be reported in different ways that are not directly at a Precinct level. The methodology adapts accordingly to work in essentially the same way in these cases. Election Day votes are typically reported directly at the Precinct level, which is ideal for Actual Vote analysis.

Each printed results poll tape from an election in North Carolina represents one specific combination of County, Precinct, and Voting Method, and provides tabulated Poll Tape Vote Totals for contests and choices for that combination. For detailed technical information about North Carolina’s vote reporting structure, see Section 18 of the Technical Manual.

Data collection

Volunteers were primarily poll observers at their assigned polling places, recording tapes right after they were printed using the Actual Vote app or phone cameras. Some submissions were emailed directly to America Counts via email, Dropbox, or other methods. In total, we received 77 submissions, of which 52 were transcribable.

All poll tape recordings used in this analysis are publicly available at av.democracycounts.org.

Transcription and comparison

Poll tape vote totals were transcribed by hand from video recordings into structured spreadsheets. The comparison of transcribed poll tape values to official results was conducted using Python, an industry-standard programming language for data science. For each combination of county, precinct, voting method, contest, and choice, the transcribed poll tape vote total was compared directly to the officially reported total. Any mismatch was flagged as an initial non-match for investigation.

For the archive of this analysis and full technical details, see av.democracycounts.org.

State-specific notes

In some North Carolina counties, Early Voting, Absentee, and Provisional votes are reported at different aggregation levels (not always at precinct level). The methodology adapts accordingly, comparing at the appropriate aggregation level for each submission.

Definitions

A submission is the set of all videos and/or images submitted through the Actual Vote app or sent directly to America Counts that contribute to depicting one specific thing (most often a single results tape).

A transcribable submission is a submission that depicts a results tape with clearly readable header information (state, county, election, precinct, voting method) and at least one legible contest/choice/vote total for comparison to official results.

Submissions containing zero tapes, configuration reports, or procedural documentation are not transcribable because they do not contain vote totals for comparison.

For the full set of formal definitions used across all Actual Vote analyses, see the Technical Manual glossary.

6. Discussion of Results

No apparent discrepancies found

This analysis provides evidence that the 321,502 votes from the North Carolina March 5, 2024 Primary Election that it analyzed were reported correctly. Every one of the 4,625 transcribed values matched the officially reported result exactly, with zero discrepancies found across all comparisons.

This result strengthens election transparency by providing independent evidence that vote reporting in the areas covered was accurate during this election. The counties and precincts covered in this analysis represent a partial audit of the state — we covered 7 of North Carolina’s 100 counties, though full coverage within those counties was limited to precincts and voting methods for which we received transcribable submissions.

Two complete-county audits

In Alexander and McDowell counties, the audit achieved full coverage: every officially reported contest-level vote — 101,709 in Alexander and 118,970 in McDowell, across every precinct and every voting method — was compared against poll tape evidence, and every value matched. We believe these are among the first complete independent audits of a county’s vote reporting conducted by citizens. They demonstrate that with modest volunteer coverage (a county’s worth of poll tapes is a few dozen recordings), the methodology scales to total verification of a jurisdiction.

Five fully verified contests

The decisive question for any contest is whether a reporting error big enough to change the outcome could have escaped detection. An error can only hide in votes an audit did not check — so the comparison that matters is between each contest’s unaudited votes and its margin of victory. Because Alexander and McDowell were audited completely, five contests had zero unaudited votes: every vote reported in them was independently verified, confirming those outcomes outright (subject, as always, to the matched-poll-tape caveat). The full contest-by-contest comparison is in Section 9.

Procedural anomaly: AM/PM clock setting in Henderson County

While Actual Vote analyses focus on auditing vote reporting, analyzing poll tapes can reveal procedural anomalies worth flagging. We discovered an AM/PM clock-setting error on tabulators at two Henderson County precincts: Laurel Park and Flat Rock.

The tapes from these precincts appeared to show the polling places opening after 6:00 PM and closing after 7:00 AM the next day — an impossibility almost certainly caused by an AM/PM reversal on the tabulator clocks. The actual polling hours were normal (opening around 6:30 AM and closing around 7:30 PM). This issue is not relevant to vote totals but was worth flagging for procedural improvement.

We emailed the Henderson County Board of Elections on March 11, 2024. They confirmed the error within hours and pledged to fix it for future elections. We thank Henderson County BOE for their professionalism in resolving this issue quickly.

External challenges to data collection

Some Actual Vote users in North Carolina were told they could not use the Actual Vote app to video-record poll tapes but could use their phone’s camera app. While we received good submissions this way, using the app is more efficient. We encourage North Carolina election administrators to allow Actual Vote app use, as it accelerates the analysis process.

Some users opted for panoramic mode on their cameras when still photos were their only option. Panoramic mode can result in blurry or cut-off images that are hard to transcribe. We encourage users to use normal camera mode and take multiple clear, well-aligned photos to document entire poll tapes.

Some volunteers recorded under very challenging conditions, including during active polling place closing procedures, resulting in blurry recordings. Despite these challenges, many submissions were clear enough to transcribe, illustrating the value of volunteer effort and perseverance.

Limitations of this analysis

This analysis covers only the precincts and voting methods for which we received transcribable submissions. It does not represent a complete audit of all vote reporting in North Carolina for this election. The seven counties covered (Alexander, Forsyth, Granville, Henderson, Iredell, McDowell, and Wake) represent only 7% of North Carolina’s 100 counties. Precincts and voting methods not covered may have had discrepancies that this analysis would not detect.

Additionally, coverage of Early Voting and Absentee voting methods was limited compared to Election Day coverage. Some precincts within covered counties were not represented in transcribable submissions.

7. Thanks and Acknowledgments

America Counts thanks everyone who contributed to this Actual Vote analysis. Our volunteers showed exemplary professionalism and perseverance in recording poll tapes under conditions that sometimes were quite challenging. We appreciate their dedication to election transparency and their willingness to work through technical and procedural obstacles.

We also thank the organizations that provided organizational support for this analysis.

America Counts is grateful to the Henderson County Board of Elections for their prompt and professional response to our inquiry about the AM/PM clock-setting issue, and for their commitment to correcting this for future elections. We thank all poll workers and election officials who facilitated our volunteers’ efforts to video-record poll tapes.

8. Technical and Legal Notes

Non-partisan statement

This report is the sole work of America Counts, a non-partisan 501(c)(3) nonprofit election transparency organization. Working to improve election transparency and accuracy — including by issuing reports like this one — is inherently non-partisan. This report has no stated or implied partisan intent of any kind. For more on how and why America Counts maintains its non-partisan commitment, see Non-Partisan Election Advocacy on our website.

America Counts is a project of Democracy Counts, Inc. Our website is americacounts.us and our contact email is info@democracycounts.org.

Data sources

This report is based entirely on data that is either freely available to the public or available for free upon request. Poll tape data was obtained via video recordings taken with the Actual Vote app or with users’ device cameras. Official results were downloaded from the publicly accessible North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) Historical Election Results page. All poll tape recordings used in this analysis are publicly available at av.democracycounts.org.

Conclusions and opinions

All analysis and conclusions in this report are the sole work and viewpoint of America Counts. They are not necessarily the opinion of any other person or organization, including the constituent counties’ boards of elections or the North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE).

Accuracy of contextual information

Some information in this report about how vote reporting works in North Carolina and its constituent counties reflects educated guesses and inferences by America Counts based on publicly available resources, poll tape data, and our existing knowledge of election systems. Not all such information has been directly confirmed by the relevant election authorities. If you wish to use this information, proceed with appropriate caution and verify directly with the relevant boards of elections where possible.

Using this report

This report was completed before the election certification date of March 15, 2024. Had any apparent discrepancies been found, they could have been submitted to election administrators as a cooperative ask for explanation or correction while it was still possible to update the official results. This analysis demonstrates the value of pre-certification auditing for both transparency and potential accuracy improvement.

While the data and analysis contained herein may be suitable for other purposes, no such suitability is expressed or implied by America Counts.

Note for election administrators

America Counts engages in vote report auditing in the spirit of teamwork, advocacy for election transparency, and civic engagement. We are deeply grateful to the many honest and professional election administrators across the United States. By undertaking this analysis, we are not representing any presumption that their work is inherently suspect or that error or fraud must have occurred. Independent audits of high-stakes systems are critical regardless of how well the people in those systems are performing.

Images

All images in this report are public domain, licensed by America Counts, or owned by America Counts.

The header photograph shows an Eastern Tiger Swallowtail on a sunflower — North Carolina’s state insect and state wildflower. Actual Vote reports use each state’s official nature symbols as their visual identity: imagery that is specific to the jurisdiction while remaining neutral with respect to its people, places, and politics.

Licensing

This report is released under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). You may remix, adapt, and build upon this work non-commercially, provided you acknowledge America Counts and do not imply endorsement.

9. Detailed Results

Maps

Submissions overview

Submissions by county

Submissions by voting method

Submissions by category

Transcribed values by county

Transcribed values by voting method

Transcribed values by party

Votes by party

Submissions by county and precinct

Transcribed values by county and precinct

Vote coverage by county

Votes audited as a share of ALL officially reported contest-level votes in each county — every vote for every contest, every precinct, every voting method. A county at 100% means every reported vote in the county was audited.

Audit power: unaudited votes relative to margins of victory

For an error in vote reporting to have changed a contest’s outcome, it must be large enough to overcome the margin of victory — and it must live somewhere in the votes this audit did not verify. The decisive comparison is therefore between each contest’s unaudited votes and its margin. A contest with zero unaudited votes is fully verified: every reported value was checked against poll tape evidence and the outcome is confirmed. A contest whose unaudited votes number fewer than the margin is protected against overstatement: even if every unaudited reported vote were fictitious, the verified votes alone preserve the winner’s lead. (This bounds fictitious reported votes; votes genuinely cast but never reported are the province of turnout reconciliation.) In this analysis, 5 of the 60 contests audited were fully verified. The ten contests with the least unaudited room:

Transcription quality checks

Results tapes print their own per-contest “Total Votes” (equal to the choice values plus overvotes and undervotes). Where transcribed, that line audits our transcription itself: of 154 contest blocks with a transcribed tape total, 147 reproduce it exactly from the transcribed values (7 flag a transcription gap such as an illegible line — none affect the comparison, which uses only successfully transcribed values).

Poll tape signature blocks were transcribed for 10 tapes: 6 met the required signature count and 4 showed fewer valid signatures than required. Signature counts are procedural metadata; they do not affect vote totals.

10. Appendix: Video Links

Every transcribable submission used in this analysis is listed below — one row per poll tape, so a submission whose video shows more than one poll tape spans multiple rows. Click a thumbnail or submission ID to open the original video in the public Actual Vote Video Archive. 11 submissions were sent to America Counts outside the app and are being added to the archive; they appear as “pending upload” until they receive archive IDs. A small number of submissions’ videos are not publicly available for privacy reasons; their transcribed results are still included in this analysis. If a genuine legal challenge were ever at stake, we could furnish these videos to be used non-publicly by the relevant parties. If you trust our transcription of the many videos that are public, that trust reasonably extends to these few — and you remain free to independently verify every video you can access.

Transcribable Submission	Preview	County	Precinct	Voting Method
▶ 4364	▶	Alexander	ABSENTEE	Absentee
▶ 4351	▶	Alexander	B1	Election Day
▶ 4352	▶	Alexander	B2	Election Day
▶ 4353	▶	Alexander	E	Election Day
▶ 4361	▶	Alexander	EV ADM	Early Voting
▶ 4362	▶	Alexander	EV BETH	Early Voting
▶ 4363	▶	Alexander	EV HFD	Early Voting
▶ 4354	▶	Alexander	G1G2	Election Day
▶ 4355	▶	Alexander	LRSL	Election Day
▶ 4356	▶	Alexander	M	Election Day
▶ 4357	▶	Alexander	S1S2	Election Day
▶ 4358	▶	Alexander	T1T4T5	Election Day
▶ 4359	▶	Alexander	T2T3	Election Day
▶ 4360	▶	Alexander	W	Election Day
▶ 4327	▶	Forsyth	017	Election Day
▶ 4322	▶	Granville	CRDM	Election Day
▶ 4325	▶	Granville	SOOX	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	AT	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	CV	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	EF	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	FL	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	FR	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	HS	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	LP	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Henderson	NE	Election Day
▶ 4323	▶	Iredell	DV2B-1	Election Day
▶ 4324	▶	Iredell	FT	Election Day
▶ 4320	▶	Iredell	ST1	Election Day
▶ 4321	▶	Iredell	ST2	Election Day
▶ 4319	▶	Iredell	ST6	Election Day
4332 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	ABSENTEE	Absentee
4341 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	CCREEK	Election Day
4342 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	DYSART	Election Day
4333 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	EV	Early Voting
4348 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	FORT 1	Election Day
4349 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	FORT 2	Election Day
4343 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	GLENWD	Election Day
4344 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	HIGGIN	Election Day
4345 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	M.COVE	Election Day
4334 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	MAR 1	Election Day
4335 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	MAR 2	Election Day
4336 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	MAR 3	Election Day
4337 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	MAR 4	Election Day
4338 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	MAR 5	Election Day
4347 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	N.COVE	Election Day
4346 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	NEBO	Election Day
4339 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	PLEASA	Election Day
4350 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	T.COVE	Election Day
4340 Video not available for privacy reasons	Thumbnail not available	McDowell	WEST M	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Wake	01-51	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Wake	02-05	Election Day
Pending upload	Thumbnail not available	Wake	20-03	Election Day

11. Version History